Prostate cancer incidence statistics

Cases

New cases of prostate cancer, 2015, UK

 

Proportion of all cases

Percentage prostate cancer is of total cancer cases, 2015, UK

 

Age

Peak rate of prostate cancer cases, 2013-2015, UK

 

Trend over time

Change in prostate cancer incidence rates since the early 1990s, UK

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in males in the UK, accounting for 26% of all new cancer cases in males (2015).[1-4]

Prostate cancer incidence rates (European age-standardised (AS) rates Open a glossary item ) are significantly higher than the UK average in England, significantly lower than the UK average in Scotland, and similar to the UK average in all other UK constituent countries.

Prostate Cancer (C61), Number of New Cases, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, Males, UK, 2015

  England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland UK
Male Cases 40,331 3,135 2,552 1,133 47,151
Crude Rate 149.2 120.1 167.3 124.6 147.0
AS Rate 176.4 135.4 176.0 162.8 172.6
AS Rate - 95% LCI 174.7 130.6 169.2 153.4 171.0
AS Rate - 95% UCI 178.1 140.1 182.8 172.3 174.2
Persons Cases 40,331 3,135 2,552 1,133 47,151
Crude Rate 73.6 58.3 82.3 61.2 72.4
AS Rate 81.4 61.2 80.8 73.8 79.4
AS Rate - 95% LCI 80.6 59.1 77.6 69.5 78.7
AS Rate - 95% UCI 82.2 63.3 83.9 78.1 80.2

95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits Open a glossary item  around the AS Rate Open a glossary item
 

For prostate cancer, there are few established risk factors therefore differences between countries largely reflect differences in diagnosis and data recording.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2015, ICD-10 C61.

Last reviewed:

Prostate cancer incidence is strongly related to age, with the highest incidence rates being in older men. In the UK in 2013-2015, on average each year more than a third (35%) of new cases were in males aged 75 and over.[1-4

Age-specific incidence rates rise steeply from around age 50-54, peak in the 75-79 age group, and subsequently drop in the 80-84 age group, before increasing steadily again. The highest rates are in the 90+ age group.

Prostate Cancer (C61), Average Number of New Cases per Year and Age-Specific Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, Males, UK, 2013-2015

95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits Open a glossary item around the AS Rate Open a glossary item
 

For prostate cancer, like most cancer types, incidence increases with age. This largely reflects cell DNA damage accumulating over time. Damage can result from biological processes or from exposure to risk factors. A drop or plateau in incidence in the oldest age groups often indicates reduced diagnostic activity perhaps due to general ill health.

The age distribution of prostate cancer cases probably partly reflects the age groups in which prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing and transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) are carried out.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2013-2015, ICD-10 C61.

Last reviewed:

Prostate cancer European age-standardised (AS) Open a glossary item incidence rates for males increased by 44% in the UK between 1993-1995 and 2013-2015.[1-4].

Over the last decade in the UK (between 2003-2005 and 2013-2015), prostate cancer AS incidence rates for males increased by 6%.[1-4]

Prostate Cancer (C61), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Males, UK, 1993-2015

Prostate cancer incidence rates have increased overall in most broad adult age groups in males in the UK since the early 1990s, but have decreased in some.[1-4] Rates in 25-49s have increased by 507%, in 50-59s have increased by 285%, in 60-69s have increased by 142%, in 70-79s have increased by 42%, and in 80+s have decreased by 23%.

Prostate Cancer (C61), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, By Age, Males, UK, 1993-2015

Prostate cancer incidence trends clearly reflect incidental detection of asymptomatic disease through transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. PSA testing was introduced in the late 1980s and an estimated 10-20% of men in Europe have had the test.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 1993-2015, ICD-10 C61.

Last reviewed:

Overall stage at diagnosis

A high proportion (78-88%) of prostate cancer cases in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland have stage at diagnosis recorded.[1-3]

Prostate cancer patients diagnosed with a known stage are most commonly diagnosed at stage I in England (35%), stage II in Northern Ireland (39%) and stage IV in Scotland (34%).[1-3]

More prostate cancer patients with a known stage are diagnosed at an early stage (57-63% diagnosed at stage I or II) than a late stage (37-43% diagnosed at stage III or IV) in England and Northern Ireland.[1-3]

However, in Scotland more prostate cancer patients with a known stage are diagnosed at a late stage (44% diagnosed at stage III or IV) than an early stage (57% diagnosed at stage I or II).[1-3]

Between 17% and 34% of prostate cancer patients have metastases at diagnosis (stage IV).[1-3]

The stage distribution for each cancer type will reflect many factors including how the cancer type develops, the way symptoms appear, public awareness of symptoms, how quickly a person goes to see their doctor and how quickly the cancer is recognised and diagnosed by a doctor. It might also relate to whether a national screening programme that can detect early stage disease exists for that cancer type, along with the extent of uptake of that programme.

A cancer type associated with a large proportion of early stage diagnoses could be one that is more likely to be symptomatic at an earlier stage of development, with recognisable symptoms rather than more generic ones.

Prostate Cancer (C61), Proportion of Cases Diagnosed at Each Stage, All Ages, England 2014, Scotland 2013-2014, Northern Ireland 2010-2014

Data should not be compared between countries due to differences in time periods and possible differences in recording of stage at diagnosis.
 

Stage at diagnosis by deprivation

Late stage at diagnosis of prostate cancer is associated with higher deprivation. Among adults aged 15-99 in England, 43% of those in the most deprived areas are diagnosed at stage III or IV, versus 38% of those in the least deprived areas.[4]

 Stage at diagnosis by age

Late stage at diagnosis of prostate cancer is more common in adults aged 80+ in England (56% diagnosed at stage III or IV), compared to those aged 60-79 (39% diagnosed at stage III or IV). And younger adults aged 15-59 (31% diagnosed at stage III or IV).[4]

Late stage prostate cancer, is also more common in adults aged 60-79 (39% diagnosed at stage III or IV) versus those aged 15-59 (31% diagnosed at stage III or IV).[4]

These patterns by deprivation, age and sex are probably not explained  by other demographic differences.[5]

Stage at diagnosis by ethnicity

Late stage at diagnosis for prostate cancer in England is less common in Black Caribbean adults (29% diagnosed at stage III or IV) and Asian Indian adults (30% diagnosed at stage III or IV), compared to White British adults (33% diagnosed at stage III or IV) after adjusting for age, sex and deprivation.[6]

Variation in stage at diagnosis between countries and demographic groups might reflect variation in the use of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. PSA testing can lead to the diagnosis of early cancers that would never have gone on to cause harm in a man’s lifetime (overdiagnosis). This could lead to unnecessary treatment for some men, which can have serious side effects.

For example, there is evidence indicating that black men in the UK are more likely to have PSA tests compared with white men, with higher rates of PSA testing leading to an artificially higher proportion of early stage disease in this group.

References

  1. National Cancer Intelligence Network. Stage Breakdown by CCG 2014. London: NCIN; 2016.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland upon request, August 2016. Similar data can be found here http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/index.asp
  3. Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queens University Belfast, Incidence by stage 2010-2014. Belfast: NICR; 2016.
  4. National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Routes to diagnosis of cancer by stage 2012-2013 workbook. London: NCRAS; 2016.
  5. Lyratzopoulos G, Abel G, Brown C, et al. Socio-demographic inequalities in stage of cancer diagnosis: evidence from patients with female breast, lung, colon, rectal, prostate, renal, bladder, melanoma, ovarian and endometrial cancer. Annals of Oncology, 2012:843-50.
  6. National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Ethnicity and stage at diagnosis. London: NCRAS; 2016.

About this data

Data is for: England 2014, Scotland 2013-2014, Northern Ireland 2010-2014, ICD-10 C61 (overall stage at diagnosis) and England, 2012-2013, ICD-10 (C61) (stage at diagnosis by deprivation, age, sex, and ethnicity)

Data is not comparable between countries due to differences in time periods and possible differences in how countries record stage at diagnosis.

Last reviewed:

Prostate cancer incidence rates are projected to rise by 12% in the UK between 2014 and 2035, to 233 cases per 100,000 males by 2035.[1]

Prostate cancer (C61), Observed and Projected Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, by Sex, UK, 1979-2035

It is projected that 77,349 cases of prostate cancer will be diagnosed in the UK in 2035.

References

  1. Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Projections in the UK Until 2035. Brit J Cancer 2016.

About this data

Data is for: UK, 1979-2014 (observed), 2015-2035 (projected), ICD-10 C61

Projections are based on observed incidence and mortality rates and therefore implicitly include changes in cancer risk factors, diagnosis and treatment. It is not possible to assess the statistical significance of changes between 2014 (observed) and 2035 (projected) figures. Confidence intervals are not calculated for the projected figures. Projections are by their nature uncertain because unexpected events in future could change the trend. It is not sensible to calculate a boundary of uncertainty around these already uncertain point estimates. Changes are described as 'increase' or 'decrease' if there is any difference between the point estimates.

More on projections methodology

Last reviewed:

The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is 1 in 8 for men, in 2012 in the UK.[1]

The lifetime risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer has been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of prostate cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low (‘Current Probability’ method).[2]

The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer varies by ethnicity, data for 2008-2010 in England have shown.[3] The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is 13.2-15.0% for White males, while in Black males it is significantly higher (23.5-37.2%), and in Asian males it is significantly lower (6.3-10.5%).[3]

References

  1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Statistical Information Team at Cancer Research UK. Based on data provided by the Office of National Statistics, ISD Scotland, the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit and the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, on request, December 2013 to July 2014.
  2. Esteve J, Benhamou E and Raymond L. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Scientific Publications No.128, Lyon, International Agency for Research on Cancer, pp 67-68 1994.
  3. Lloyd T, Hounsome L, Mehay A, et al. Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with, or dying from, prostate cancer by major ethnic group in England 2008-2010. BMC Med. 2015 Jul 30;13:171.

About this data

Data is for: UK (2012), England (ethnicity 2008-2010), ICD-10 C61

Lifetime risk estimates were calculated using incidence, mortality, population and all-cause mortality data for 2012.

Last reviewed:

There is evidence for a small association between prostate cancer incidence and deprivation in England, with prostate cancer being one of the few cancers where incidence rates are lower for more deprived males.[1] England-wide data for 2006-2010 show European age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates are 17% lower for males living in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived.[1]

Prostate Cancer (C61), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates by Deprivation Quintile, Males, England, 2006-2010

The estimated deprivation gradient in prostate cancer incidence between males living in the most and least deprived areas in England has not changed in the period 1996-2010. It has been estimated that there would have been around 2,500 more prostate cancer cases each year in England during 2006-2010 if all males experienced the same incidence rates as the least deprived.[1]

References

  1. Cancer Research UK and National Cancer Intelligence Network. Cancer by deprivation in England: Incidence, 1996-2010, Mortality, 1997-2011. London: NCIN; 2014.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2006-2010, ICD-10 C61

Deprivation gradient statistics were calculated using incidence data for 2006-2010. The deprivation quintiles were calculated using the Income domain scores from the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) from the following years: 2004, 2007 and 2010. Full details on the data and methodology can be found in the Cancer by Deprivation in England NCIN report.

Last reviewed:

Age-standardised Open a glossary item rates for White males with prostate cancer range from 96.0 to 99.9 per 100,000. Rates for Asian males are significantly lower, ranging from 28.7 to 60.6 per 100,000 whereas the rates for Black males are significantly higher, ranging from 120.8 to 247.9 per 100,000.[1]

Ranges are given because of the analysis methodology used to account for missing and unknown data. For prostate cancer, 146,905 cases were identified; 37% had no known ethnicity.

There are similar differences by major ethnic group in the United States.[2] Black men may be diagnosed younger compared with white men, but factors around diagnosis do not fully explain the association between ethnicity and prostate cancer incidence.[3,4]

The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer varies by ethnicity, data for 2008-2010 in England have shown.[5] The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is 13.2-15.0% for White males, while in Black males it is significantly higher (23.5-37.2%), and in Asian males it is significantly lower (6.3-10.5%).[5]

References

  1. National Cancer Intelligence Network and Cancer Research UK. Cancer Incidence and Survival by Major Ethnic Group, England, 2002-2006. 2009.
  2. Howlader NA, Krapcho M, Neyman N, et al, eds. SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975-2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations). Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute. Available from: http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/.
  3. Ben-Shlomo Y, Evans S, Ibrahim F, et al. The risk of prostate cancer amongst black men in the United Kingdom: the PROCESS cohort study. Eur Urol 2008;53:99-105.
  4. Metcalfe C, Evans S, Ibrahim F, et al. Pathways to diagnosis for Black men and White men found to have prostate cancer: the PROCESS cohort study. Br J Cancer 2008;99:1040-5.
  5. Lloyd T, Hounsome L, Mehay A, et al. Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with, or dying from, prostate cancer by major ethnic group in England 2008-2010. BMC Med. 2015 Jul 30;13:171.
Last reviewed:

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in Europe for males, and the third most common cancer overall, with around 417,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (3% of male cases and 12% of the total). In Europe (2012), the highest World age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates for prostate cancer are in Norway; the lowest are in Albania. UK prostate cancer incidence rates are estimated to be the 17th highest in Europe.[1] These data are broadly in line with Europe-specific data available elsewhere.[2]

Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide for males, and the fourth most common cancer overall, with more than 1,111,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (15% of male cases and 8% of the total). Prostate cancer incidence rates are highest in Australia/New Zealand and lowest in South Central Asia, but this partly reflects varying data quality worldwide.[1]

Variation between countries may reflect different prevalence of risk factors, use of screening, and diagnostic methods.

References

  1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 11 [Internet]. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2013. Available from:http://globocan.iarc.fr, accessed December 2013.
  2. Ferlay J, Steliarova-Foucher E, Lortet-Tieulent J, et al.Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries in 2012. European Journal of Cancer (2013) 49, 1374-1403.

About this data

Data is for Europe and worldwide, 2012, ICD-10 C61.

Last reviewed:

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