Cancer Research UK logo.
SearchDonate
  • Search
Health professionals

Lung cancer risk

Older age is the main risk factor for cancer. This largely reflects cell DNA damage accumulating over time. Damage can result from biological processes or from exposure to risk factors.

This page covers other factors with the best evidence of an association with cancer risk; this list is not exhaustive.

See our other pages for general information about cancer, or ways to reduce your risk.

More lung cancer statistics

Incidence

Mortality

Survival

Risk

Statistics by cancer type

View our latest cancer statistics including key stats, in-depth explanations and raw data on cancer incidence, mortality, survival, risk, and diagnosis and treatment.

View full A-Z cancer statistics

Cancer stats explained

See information and explanations on terminology used for statistics and reporting of cancer, and the methods used to calculate some of our statistics.

Local cancer statistics

Go to local cancer statistics - search profiles by area, constituency or health board in the UK.

Go to devolved nations overview for an overview of Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland.

Citation

You are welcome to reuse this Cancer Research UK content for your own work.
 Credit us as authors by referencing Cancer Research UK as the primary source. Suggested styles are:

  • Web content: Cancer Research UK, full URL of the page, Accessed [month] [year].

  • Publications: Cancer Research UK ([year of publication]), Name of publication, Cancer Research UK.

  • Graphics (when reused unaltered): Credit: Cancer Research UK.

  • Graphics (when recreated with differences): Based on a graphic created by Cancer Research UK.

When Cancer Research UK material is used for commercial reasons, we encourage a donation to our life-saving research. Send a cheque payable to Cancer Research UK to: Cancer Research UK, 2 Redman Place, London, E20 1JQ.

Donate online

Newsletter

Stay up to date by signing up to our cancer statistics and intelligence newsletter.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the many organisations across the UK which collect, analyse, and share the data which we use, and to the patients and public who consent for their data to be used.

Find out more about the sources which are essential for our statistics

References

  1. Arrow return up icon

    Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK 2023.

  2. Arrow return up icon

    Sasieni PD, Shelton J, Ormiston-Smith N, et al. What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: The effect of adjusting for multiple primaries. Br J Cancer, 2011.105(3): p.460-5

  3. Arrow return up icon

    Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer. Annals of Oncology, Volume 28, Issue 8, August 2017, Pages 1788-1802

  4. Arrow return up icon

    International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed August 2018.

  5. Arrow return up icon

    Peto R, Lopez A, Boreham J, et al. Mortality from smoking in developed countries 1950-2005 (or later). March 2012.

  6. Arrow return up icon

    Doll R, Peto R, Boreham J, et al. Mortality from cancer in relation to smoking: 50 years observations on British doctors. Br J Cancer 2005;92(3):426-29.

  7. Arrow return up icon

    Cancer Research UK Statistical Information Team. Calculated using formula in Doll R, Peto R. Cigarette smoking and bronchial carcinoma: dose and time relationships among regular smokers and lifelong non-smokers. J Epidemiol Community Health 1978;32(4):303-13.

  8. Arrow return up icon

    Lubin JH, Caporaso NE. Cigarette Smoking and Lung Cancer: Modeling Total Exposure and Intensity. Cancer Epidem Biomar 2006;15(3):517-23.

  9. Arrow return up icon
  10. Arrow return up icon

    Wiencke JK, Thurston SW, Kelsey KT, et al. Early Age at Smoking Initiation and Tobacco Carcinogen DNA Damage in the Lung. J Natl Cancer I 1999;91(7):614-19.

  11. Arrow return up icon
  12. Arrow return up icon
  13. Arrow return up icon

    Kenfield SA, Wei EK, Rosner BA, et al. Burden of smoking on cause-specific mortality: application to the Nurses' Health Study. Tob Control 2010;19(3):248-54.

  14. Arrow return up icon
  15. Arrow return up icon

    Bjartveit K, Tverdal A. Health consequences of smoking 1-4 cigarettes per day. Tob Control 2005;14(5):315-20.

  16. Arrow return up icon
  17. Arrow return up icon
  18. Arrow return up icon
  19. Arrow return up icon

    Mamtani R, Cheema S, Sheikh J, et al. Cancer risk in waterpipe smokers: a meta-analysis. Int J Public Health. 2016 Jul 15.

  20. Arrow return up icon

    Waziry R, Jawad M, Ballout R, et al. The effects of waterpipe tobacco smoking on health outcomes: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis: Table 1. International Journal of Epidemiology 2016;:dyw021.

  21. Arrow return up icon

    Gellert C, Schöttker B, Brenner H. Smoking and all-cause mortality in older people: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Arch Int Med 2012;172(11):837-44.

  22. Arrow return up icon
  23. Arrow return up icon

    Crispo A, Brennan P, Jockel KH, et al. The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men. Br J Cancer 2004;91(7):1280-86.

  24. Arrow return up icon

    Brennan P, Crispo A, Zaridze D, et al. High Cumulative Risk of Lung Cancer Death among Smokers and Nonsmokers in Central and Eastern Europe. Am J Epidemiol 2006;164(12):1233-41.

  25. Arrow return up icon

    Halpern MT, Gillespie BW, Warner KE. Patterns of Absolute Risk of Lung Cancer Mortality in Former Smokers. J Natl Cancer I 1993;85(6):457-64.

  26. Arrow return up icon
  27. Arrow return up icon

    Tverdal A, Bjartveit K. Health consequences of reduced daily cigarette consumption. Tob Control 2006;15(6):472-80.

  28. Arrow return up icon

    International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 117. Accessed January 2017.

  29. Arrow return up icon
  30. Arrow return up icon
  31. Arrow return up icon

    Stayner L, Bena J, Sasco AJ, et al. Lung Cancer Risk and Workplace Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke. Am J Public Health 2007;97(3):545-51.

  32. Arrow return up icon

    Kim CH, Lee YC2, Hung RJ, et al. Secondhand Tobacco Smoke Exposure and Lung Adenocarcinoma In Situ/Minimally Invasive Adenocarcinoma (AIS/MIA). Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2015 Dec;24(12):1902-6.

  33. Arrow return up icon

    International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 119*. Accessed September 2017.

  34. Arrow return up icon

    Health Protection Agency (HPA). UK Radon. Newsletters and Reports. Accessed December 2012.

  35. Arrow return up icon

    Bräuner EV, Andersen CE, Sørensen M, et al. Residential radon and lung cancer incidence in a Danish cohort. Environ Res 2012;118:130-6.

  36. Arrow return up icon

    Brown T, Darnton A, Fortunato L, et al. Occupational cancer in Britain. Respiratory cancer sites: larynx, lung and mesothelioma. Br J Cancer 2012;107 Suppl 1:S56-70.

  37. Arrow return up icon

    McCormack V, Peto J, Byrnes G, et al. Estimating the asbestos-related lung cancer burden from mesothelioma mortality. Br J Cancer 2012;106(3):575-84.

  38. Arrow return up icon
  39. Arrow return up icon

    International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans. Volume 83 (2004): Tobacco Smoke and Involuntary Smoking. France: IARC, 2004.

  40. Arrow return up icon

    Erren TC, Jacobsen M, Piekarski C. Synergy between asbestos and smoking on lung cancer risks. Epidemiology 1999;10(4):405-11.

  41. Arrow return up icon
  42. Arrow return up icon
  43. Arrow return up icon
  44. Arrow return up icon

    Tan E, Warren N, Darnton AJ, et al. Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods. Br J Cancer 2010;103(3):430-36.

  45. Arrow return up icon

    Poinen-Rughooputh S, Rughooputh M, Guo Y, et al. Occupational exposure to silica dust and risk of lung cancer: an updated meta-analysis of epidemiological studies. BMC Public Health 2016;16(1).

  46. Arrow return up icon

    Lipsett M, Campleman S. Occupational exposure to diesel exhaust and lung cancer: a meta-analysis. Am J Public Health. 1999 Jul;89(7):1009-17.

  47. Arrow return up icon
  48. Arrow return up icon

    Sun Y, Bochmann F, Nold A, et al. Diesel exhaust exposure and the risk of lung cancer-a review of the epidemiological evidence. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2014;11(2):1312-40.

  49. Arrow return up icon
  50. Arrow return up icon
  51. Arrow return up icon

    Guha N, Merletti F, Steenland NK, et al. Lung cancer risk in painters: a meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect. 2010 Mar;118(3):303-12.

  52. Arrow return up icon

    Jones DR, Sutton AJ, Abrams KR, et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality in crop protection product manufacturing workers, Occup Environ Med 2009;66(1):7-15.

  53. Arrow return up icon
  54. Arrow return up icon

    Ambroise D, Wild P, Moulin JJ. Update of a meta-analysis on lung cancer and welding. Scand J Work Environ Hea 2006;32(1):22-31.

  55. Arrow return up icon
  56. Arrow return up icon
  57. Arrow return up icon

    Hamra GB, Guha N, Cohen A, et al. Outdoor particulate matter exposure and lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 2014;122(9):906-11.

  58. Arrow return up icon

    Chen H, Goldberg MS, Villeneuve PJ. A systematic review of the relation between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and chronic diseases. Rev Environ Health 2008;23(4):243-97.

  59. Arrow return up icon
  60. Arrow return up icon
  61. Arrow return up icon
  62. Arrow return up icon
  63. Arrow return up icon

    Brenner DR, McLaughlin JR, Hung RJ. Previous Lung Diseases and Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLoS ONE 2011;6(3):e17479.

  64. Arrow return up icon

    Brenner DR, Boffetta P, Duell EJ, et al. Previous lung diseases and lung cancer risk: a pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Am J Epidemiol 2012; 176(7):573-85.

  65. Arrow return up icon

    Denholm R, Schüz J, Straif K, et al. Is previous respiratory disease a risk factor for lung cancer? Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2014;190(5):549-59.

  66. Arrow return up icon

    Ibrahim EM, Kazkaz GA, Abouelkhair KM et al. Increased risk of second lung cancer in Hodgkin's lymphoma survivors: a meta-analysis. Lung 2013; 191(1):117-34).

  67. Arrow return up icon

    Zhan P, Suo L-j, Qian Q, et al. Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and lung cancer risk: A meta-analysis. Eur J Cancer 2011;47(5):742-47.

  68. Arrow return up icon