Pancreatic cancer incidence statistics

Cases

New cases of pancreatic cancer, 2013, UK

 

Proportion of all cases

Percentage pancreatic cancer is of total cancer cases, 2013, UK

 

Age

Age that almost half of pancreatic cancer cases are diagnosed, 2011-2013, UK

 

Trend since 1970s

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates have changed differently for each sex since the late 1970s, GB

 

Pancreatic cancer is the 10th most common cancer in the UK (2013), accounting for 3% of all new cases. In males, it is the 12th most common cancer (3% of all male cases), whilst it is the ninth in females (3% of all female cases).[1-4]

In 2013, there were 9,408 new cases of pancreatic cancer in the UK: 4,716 (50%) in males and 4,692 (50%) in females, giving a male:female ratio of around 10:10.[1-4] The crude incidence rate Open a glossary item shows that there are 15 new pancreatic cancer cases for every 100,000 males in the UK, and 14 for every 100,000 females.

The European age-standardised incidence rates Open a glossary item (AS rates) do not differ significantly for males or females between the constituent countries of the UK.[1-4]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Number of New Cases, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2013

England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK
Male Cases 3,964 254 397 101 4,716
Crude Rate 14.9 16.8 15.3 11.3 15.0
AS Rate 18.3 18.2 18.6 15.2 18.3
AS Rate - 95% LCL 17.8 15.9 16.8 12.3 17.7
AS Rate - 95% UCL 18.9 20.4 20.4 18.2 18.8
Female Cases 3,923 248 395 126 4,692
Crude Rate 14.4 15.8 14.4 13.5 14.4
AS Rate 14.7 14.8 14.3 15.7 14.7
AS Rate - 95% LCL 14.2 13.0 12.9 12.9 14.3
AS Rate - 95% UCL 15.2 16.7 15.7 18.4 15.1
Persons Cases 7,887 502 792 227 9,408
Crude Rate 14.6 16.3 14.9 12.4 14.7
AS Rate 16.4 16.4 16.2 15.6 16.3
AS Rate - 95% LCL 16.0 15.0 15.0 13.6 16.0
AS Rate - 95% UCL 16.7 17.9 17.3 17.7 16.7

ASR calculated with ESP2013. Not comparable with ASRs calculated with ESP1976.

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates throughout the UK vary moderately between cancer networks.[5,6]

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/cancer-statistics-registrations--england--series-mb1-/index.html.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, April 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/index.asp.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit on request, February 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=242&pid=59080.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, March 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.
  5. National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN). Cancer Incidence and Mortality by Cancer Network, UK, 2005. London: NCIN; 2008.
  6. National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN). Cancer e-Atlas. Accessed July 2013.
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Pancreatic cancer incidence is strongly related to age, with the highest incidence rates being in older males and females. In the UK in 2011-2013, on average each year almost half (47%) of cases were diagnosed in people aged 75 and over. [1-4]

Age-specific incidence rates in males rise sharply from around age 50-54, peak in the 85-89 age group, and subsequently drop in those aged 90+. Incidence rates in females also rise sharply from around age 50-54, with the highest rates in the 90+ age group. Incidence rates are higher for males than for females aged between 45-49 and 85-89, higher for females than for males aged 25-29, with no significant differences in other age groups. This gap is widest at the ages of 45-49, when the male:female ratio of age-specific incidence rates (to account for the different proportions of males to females in each age group) is around 15:10.[1-4]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Average Number of New Cases per Year and Age-Specific Incidence Rates, UK, 2011-2013

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/cancer-statistics-registrations--england--series-mb1-/index.html.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, April 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/index.asp.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit on request, February 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=242&pid=59080.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, March 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.
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Pancreatic cancer incidence rates have remained stable in Great Britain since the late 1970s.[1-3] However this overall pattern masks an increase for females and a decrease for males. 

For males, European age-standardised Open a glossary item (AS) incidence rates decreased by 18%between 1979-1981 and 2001-2003, and have since increased by 9%.[1-3] For females, rates remained stable between 1979-1981 and 2002-2004, and have since increased by 11%.[1-3]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Great Britain, 1979-2013

ASR calculated with ESP2013. Not comparable with ASRs calculated with ESP1976.

Over the last decade in the UK (between 2002-2004 and 2011-2013), pancreatic cancer AS incidence rates have increased by 10% for males and females combined, with a slightly larger increase for females (11%) than for males (8%).[1-4]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, UK, 1993-2013

ASR calculated with ESP2013. Not comparable with ASRs calculated with ESP1976.

Pancreatic cancer incidence trends probably reflect changing prevalence of risk factors, with recent incidence trends influenced by risk factor prevalence in years past.

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates in males have decreased overall across most of the broad age groups in Great Britain since the late 1970s, though this includes a decrease followed by an increase for most age groups.[1-3] In males aged 60-69, 70-79 and 80+, rates decreased until the mid-1990s, then remained stable for a short period, and have since increased.[1-3] In males aged 25-49 and 50-59, rates decreased until the early 2000s, and have since remained stable.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Males by Age, Great Britain, 1979-2013

ASR calculated with ESP2013. Not comparable with ASRs calculated with ESP1976.

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates have increased overall for females aged 60 and over in Great Britain since the late 1970s, though this includes a period of stability followed by an increase.[1-3] In females aged 60-69, 70-79 and 80+, European AS incidence rates remained stable until 1995-1997, and increased by 16%, 13% 16%, respectively, between 1995-1997 and 2011-2013. Rates in females aged 25-49 and 50-59 have remained stable since the late 1970s.[1-3]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Females by Age, Great Britain, 1979-2013

ASR calculated with ESP2013. Not comparable with ASRs calculated with ESP1976.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/cancer-statistics-registrations--england--series-mb1-/index.html.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, April 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/index.asp.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit on request, February 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=242&pid=59080.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, March 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.
Last reviewed:

The lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 70 for men and 1 in 73 for women, in 2012 in the UK.[1]

The lifetime risk for pancreatic cancer has been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of pancreatic cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low (‘Current Probability’ method).[2]

References

  1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Statistical Information Team at Cancer Research UK. Based on data provided by the Office of National Statistics, ISD Scotland, the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit and the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, on request, December 2013 to July 2014.
  2. Esteve J, Benhamou E and Raymond L. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Scientific Publications No.128, Lyon, International Agency for Research on Cancer, pp 67-68 1994.
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Around 95% of pancreatic tumours are adenocarcinomas Open a glossary item, originating from the exocrine (digestive enzyme-producing) part of the pancreas. Nearly all of these are ductal adenocarcinomas.

There are also three rarer types of exocrine pancreatic cancer, for which the treatment followed is more or less the same as for ductal adenocarcinoma. Endocrine tumours of the pancreas exist too, arising from the islets of Langerhans (which produce several hormones including insulin Open a glossary item), but are rare.[1]

References

  1. Adami HO, Hunter D, Trichopoulos D. Textbook of Cancer Epidemiology. Vol 1. New York: Oxford University Press; 2002.
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Pancreatic cancer is the eighth most common cancer in Europe, with around 104,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (3% of the total). In Europe (2012), the highest World age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates for pancreatic cancer are in the Czech Republic for both men and women; the lowest rates are in Bosnia Herzegovina for both men and women. UK pancreatic cancer incidence rates are estimated to be the eighth lowest in males in Europe, and 20th highest in females.[1] These data are broadly in line with Europe-specific data available elsewhere.[2]

Pancreatic cancer is the 12th most common cancer worldwide, with around 338,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (2% of the total). Pancreatic cancer incidence rates are highest in Northern America and lowest in Middle Africa, but this partly reflects varying data quality worldwide.[1]

References

  1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 11 [Internet]. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2013. Available from: http://globocan.iarc.fr, accessed December 2013.
  2. Ferlay J, Steliarova-Foucher E, Lortet-Tieulent J, et al.Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries in 2012. European Journal of Cancer (2013) 49, 1374-1403.
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There is evidence for an association between pancreatic cancer incidence and deprivation for both males and females in England.[1] England-wide data for 2006-2010 show European age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates are 23% higher for males living in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, and 29% higher for females.[1

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates by Deprivation Quintile, England, 2006-2010

The estimated deprivation gradient in pancreatic cancer incidence between people living in the most and least deprived areas in England has not changed in the period 1996-2010.[1] It has been estimated that there would have been around 580 fewer cancer cases each year in England during 2006-2010 if all people experienced the same incidence rates as the least deprived.[1]

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Age-standardised Open a glossary item rates for White males with pancreatic cancer range from 10.2 to 10.7 per 100,000. Rates for Black males are similar, ranging from 7.6 to 14.2 per 100,000 and the rates for Asian males are significantly lower, ranging from 4.6 to 8.6 per 100,000. For females there is a similar pattern - the age-standardised rates for White females range from 7.9 to 8.3 per 100,000. Rates for Black females are similar, ranging from 6.0 to 11.9 per 100,000, whereas the rates for Asian females are significantly lower, ranging from 2.9 to 5.9 per 100,000.[1]

Ranges are given because of the analysis methodology used to account for missing and unknown data. For pancreatic cancer, 31,702 cases were identified; 25% had no known ethnicity.

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In the UK around 4,300 people were still alive at the end of 2006, up to ten years after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.[1]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), One, Five and Ten Year Cancer Prevalence, UK, 31st December 2006

1 Year Prevalence 5 Year Prevalence 10 Year Prevalence
Male 1,186 1,898 2,205
Female 1,221 1,886 2,144
Persons 2,407 3,784 4,349

Worldwide, it is estimated that there were more than 172,000 men and women still alive in 2008, up to five years after their diagnosis.[2]

References

  1. National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN). One, Five and Ten Year Cancer Prevalence. London, NCIN; 2010.
  2. Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, et al. GLOBOCAN 2008 v1.2, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 10 [Internet]. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC); 2010. Available from http://globocan.iarc.fr. Accessed July 2013.
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Cancer Statistics Explained

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