Pancreatic cancer incidence statistics

Cases

New cases of pancreatic cancer, 2015, UK

 

Proportion of all cases

Percentage pancreatic cancer is of total cancer cases, 2015, UK

 

Age

Peak rate of pancreatic cancer cases, 2013-2015, UK

 

Trend over time

Change in pancreatic cancer incidence rates since the early 1990s, UK

Pancreatic cancer is the 11th most common cancer in the UK, accounting for 3% of all new cancer cases (2015).[1-4]

In males in the UK, pancreatic cancer is the 12th most common cancer (3% of all new male cancer cases). In females in the UK it is the 9th most common cancer (3% of all new female cancer cases).

50% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK are in males, and 50% are in females.

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates (European age-standardised (AS) rates Open a glossary item ) are similar to the UK average in all the UK constituent countries.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Number of New Cases, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2015

  England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland UK
Male Cases 4,175 402 238 146 4,961
Crude Rate 15.4 15.4 15.6 16.1 15.5
AS Rate 18.4 17.9 16.5 21.5 18.4
AS Rate - 95% LCI 17.9 16.1 14.4 18.0 17.9
AS Rate - 95% UCI 19.0 19.6 18.5 25.0 18.9
Female Cases 4,144 419 270 127 4,960
Crude Rate 14.9 15.2 17.2 13.5 15.0
AS Rate 15.1 14.7 15.7 15.0 15.1
AS Rate - 95% LCI 14.6 13.3 13.9 12.4 14.7
AS Rate - 95% UCI 15.6 16.1 17.6 17.6 15.5
Persons Cases 8,319 821 508 273 9,921
Crude Rate 15.2 15.3 16.4 14.7 15.2
AS Rate 16.7 16.2 16.1 17.8 16.6
AS Rate - 95% LCI 16.3 15.1 14.7 15.7 16.3
AS Rate - 95% UCI 17.0 17.3 17.5 19.9 17.0

95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits Open a glossary item  around the AS Rate Open a glossary item
 

For pancreatic cancer, like most cancer types, differences between countries largely reflect risk factor prevalence in years past.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2015, ICD-10 C25.

Last reviewed:

Pancreatic cancer incidence is strongly related to age, with the highest incidence rates being in older people. In the UK in 2013-2015, on average each year almost half (47%) of new cases were in people aged 75 and over.[1-4

Age-specific incidence rates rise steeply from around age 50-54 and drop slightly in the 90+ age group in males only. The highest rates are in the 85 to 89 age group for males and the 90+ age group for females.

Incidence rates are significantly higher in males than females in a number of (mainly older) age groups. The gap is widest at age 40 to 44, when the age-specific incidence rate is 1.6 times higher in males than females.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Average Number of New Cases per Year and Age-Specific Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2013-2015

95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits Open a glossary item around the AS Rate Open a glossary item
 

For pancreatic cancer, like most cancer types, incidence increases with age. This largely reflects cell DNA damage accumulating over time. Damage can result from biological processes or from exposure to risk factors. A drop or plateau in incidence in the oldest age groups often indicates reduced diagnostic activity perhaps due to general ill health.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2013-2015, ICD-10 C25.

Last reviewed:

Pancreatic cancer European age-standardised (AS) Open a glossary item incidence rates for males and females combined increased by 15% in the UK between 1993-1995 and 2013-2015.[1-4] The increase was of a similar size in males and females.

For males, pancreatic cancer AS incidence rates in the UK increased by 9% between 1993-1995 and 2013-2015. For females, pancreatic cancer AS incidence rates in the UK increased by 17% between 1993-1995 and 2013-2015.

Over the last decade in the UK (between 2003-2005 and 2013-2015), pancreatic cancer AS incidence rates for males and females combined increased by 11%.[1-4] In males AS incidence rates increased by 9%, and in females rates increased by 11%.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, UK, 1993-2015

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates have increased overall in some broad adult age groups in males in the UK since the early 1990s, but have remained stable in others.[1-4] Rates in 25-49s have remained stable, in 50-59s have remained stable, in 60-69s have increased by 12%, in 70-79s have increased by 10%, and in 80+s have increased by 9%.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, By Age, Males, UK, 1993-2015

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates have increased overall in all broad adult age groups in females in the UK since the early 1990s.[1-4] Rates in 25-49s have increased by 29%, in 50-59s have increased by 17%, in 60-69s have increased by 9%, in 70-79s have increased by 20%, and in 80+s have increased by 20%.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, By Age, Females, UK, 1993-2015

For pancreatic cancer, like most cancer types, incidence trends largely reflect changing prevalence of risk factors and improvements in diagnosis and data recording. Recent incidence trends are influenced by risk factor prevalence in years past, and trends by age group reflect risk factor exposure in birth cohorts.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cancerregistrationstatisticsengland/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, August 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications.
  3. Data were provided by the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, Health Intelligence Division, Public Health Wales on request, October 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.wcisu.wales.nhs.uk.
  4. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, July 2017. Similar data can be found here: http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/nicr/.

About this data

Data is for UK, 1993-2015, ICD-10 C25.

Last reviewed:

Overall diagnosis by stage

A moderate proportion (69-79%) of pancreatic cancer cases in England and Scotland have stage at diagnosis recorded.[1,2]

Pancreatic cancer patients with a known stage are most commonly diagnosed at stage IV (68-69%). More patients with a known stage are diagnosed at a late stage (79% are diagnosed at stage III or IV), than an early stage (21% are diagnosed at stage I or II).[1,2]

The stage distribution for each cancer type will reflect many factors including how the cancer type develops, the way symptoms appear, public awareness of symptoms, how quickly a person goes to see their doctor and how quickly the cancer is recognised and diagnosed by a doctor. It might also relate to whether a national screening programme that can detect early stage disease exists for that cancer type, along with the extent of uptake of that programme.

A cancer type associated with a large proportion of early stage diagnoses could be one that is more likely to be symptomatic at an earlier stage of development, with recognisable symptoms rather than more generic ones.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Proportion of Cases Diagnosed at Each Stage, All Ages, England and Scotland, 2014

Data should not be compared between countries due to possible differences in recording of stage at diagnosis.

References

  1. National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Stage Breakdown by CCG 2014. London: NCRAS; 2016.
  2. ISD Scotland, Detect Cancer Early Staging Data. Scotland: ISD; 2016.

About this data

Data is for: England and Scotland, 2014, ICD-10 C25

Data is not comparable between countries due to differences in time periods and possible differences in how countries record stage at diagnosis.

Last reviewed:

Around 95% of pancreatic tumours are adenocarcinomas Open a glossary item, originating from the exocrine (digestive enzyme-producing) part of the pancreas. Nearly all of these are ductal adenocarcinomas.

There are also three rarer types of exocrine pancreatic cancer, for which the treatment followed is more or less the same as for ductal adenocarcinoma. Endocrine tumours of the pancreas exist too, arising from the islets of Langerhans (which produce several hormones including insulin Open a glossary item), but are rare.[1]

References

  1. Adami HO, Hunter D, Trichopoulos D. Textbook of Cancer Epidemiology. Vol 1. New York: Oxford University Press; 2002.
Last reviewed:

Pancreatic cancer incidence rates are projected to rise by 6% in the UK between 2014 and 2035, to 21 cases per 100,000 people by 2035.[1] This includes a larger increase for males than for females.

For males, pancreatic cancer European age-standardised (AS) Open a glossary item incidence rates in the UK are projected to rise by 7% between 2014 and 2035, to 23 cases per 100,000 by 2035.[1] For females, rates are projected to rise by 4% between 2014 and 2035, to 18 cases per 100,000 by 2035.[1]

Pancreatic cancer (C25), Observed and Projected Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, by Sex, UK, 1979-2035

It is projected that 15,157 cases of pancreatic cancer (7,874 in males, 7,283 in females) will be diagnosed in the UK in 2035.

References

  1. Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Projections in the UK Until 2035. Brit J Cancer 2016.

About this data

Data is for: UK, 1979-2014 (observed), 2015-2035 (projected), ICD-10 C25

Projections are based on observed incidence and mortality rates and therefore implicitly include changes in cancer risk factors, diagnosis and treatment. It is not possible to assess the statistical significance of changes between 2014 (observed) and 2035 (projected) figures. Confidence intervals are not calculated for the projected figures. Projections are by their nature uncertain because unexpected events in future could change the trend. It is not sensible to calculate a boundary of uncertainty around these already uncertain point estimates. Changes are described as 'increase' or 'decrease' if there is any difference between the point estimates.

More on projections methodology

Last reviewed:

The lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 70 for men and 1 in 73 for women, in 2012 in the UK.[1]

The lifetime risk for pancreatic cancer has been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of pancreatic cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low (‘Current Probability’ method).[2]

References

  1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Statistical Information Team at Cancer Research UK. Based on data provided by the Office of National Statistics, ISD Scotland, the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit and the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, on request, December 2013 to July 2014.
  2. Esteve J, Benhamou E and Raymond L. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Scientific Publications No.128, Lyon, International Agency for Research on Cancer, pp 67-68 1994.
Last reviewed:

There is evidence for an association between pancreatic cancer incidence and deprivation for both males and females in England.[1] England-wide data for 2006-2010 show European age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates are 23% higher for males living in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, and 29% higher for females.[1

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates by Deprivation Quintile, England, 2006-2010

The estimated deprivation gradient in pancreatic cancer incidence between people living in the most and least deprived areas in England has not changed in the period 1996-2010.[1] It has been estimated that there would have been around 580 fewer cancer cases each year in England during 2006-2010 if all people experienced the same incidence rates as the least deprived.[1]

References

  1. Cancer Research UK and National Cancer Intelligence Network. Cancer by deprivation in England: Incidence, 1996-2010, Mortality, 1997-2011. London: NCIN; 2014.

About this data

Data is for UK, 2006-2010, ICD-10 C25

Deprivation gradient statistics were calculated using incidence data for 2006-2010. The deprivation quintiles were calculated using the Income domain scores from the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) from the following years: 2004, 2007 and 2010. Full details on the data and methodology can be found in the Cancer by Deprivation in England NCIN report.

Last reviewed:

Age-standardised Open a glossary item rates for White males with pancreatic cancer range from 10.2 to 10.7 per 100,000. Rates for Black males are similar, ranging from 7.6 to 14.2 per 100,000 and the rates for Asian males are significantly lower, ranging from 4.6 to 8.6 per 100,000. For females there is a similar pattern - the age-standardised rates for White females range from 7.9 to 8.3 per 100,000. Rates for Black females are similar, ranging from 6.0 to 11.9 per 100,000, whereas the rates for Asian females are significantly lower, ranging from 2.9 to 5.9 per 100,000.[1]

Ranges are given because of the analysis methodology used to account for missing and unknown data. For pancreatic cancer, 31,702 cases were identified; 25% had no known ethnicity.

Last reviewed:

An estimated 6,600 people who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 1991 and 2010 were alive in the UK at the end of 2010.[1]

References

  1. Macmillan Cancer Support and National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Cancer Prevalence UK Data Tables. London: NCRAS; 2015.

About this data

Data is for: Great Britain (1991-2010) and Northern Ireland (1993-2010), ICD-10 C25

Last reviewed:

Pancreatic cancer is the eighth most common cancer in Europe, with around 104,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (3% of the total). In Europe (2012), the highest World age-standardised Open a glossary item incidence rates for pancreatic cancer are in the Czech Republic for both men and women; the lowest rates are in Bosnia Herzegovina for both men and women. UK pancreatic cancer incidence rates are estimated to be the eighth lowest in males in Europe, and 20th highest in females.[1] These data are broadly in line with Europe-specific data available elsewhere.[2]

Pancreatic cancer is the 12th most common cancer worldwide, with around 338,000 new cases diagnosed in 2012 (2% of the total). Pancreatic cancer incidence rates are highest in Northern America and lowest in Middle Africa, but this partly reflects varying data quality worldwide.[1]

References

  1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 11 [Internet]. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2013. Available from: http://globocan.iarc.fr, accessed December 2013.
  2. Ferlay J, Steliarova-Foucher E, Lortet-Tieulent J, et al.Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries in 2012. European Journal of Cancer (2013) 49, 1374-1403.
Last reviewed:

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