Pancreatic cancer mortality statistics

Deaths

Deaths from pancreatic cancer, 2014, UK

 

Proportion of all deaths

Percentage pancreatic cancer is of total cancer deaths, 2014, UK

 

Age

Peak rate of pancreatic cancer deaths, 2012-2014, UK

 

Trend over time

Pancreatic cancer mortality rates have have changed differently for each sex since the early 1970s, UK

 

Pancreatic cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer death in the UK (2014), accounting for 5% of all cancer deaths. In males, it is the fifth most common cause of cancer death in the UK (5% of all male cancer deaths), whilst it is the fourth most common cause of cancer death in females in the UK (6% of all female cancer deaths).[1-3]

In 2014, there were 8,817 pancreatic cancer deaths in the UK: 4,426 (50%) in males and 4,391 (50%) in females, giving a male:female ratio of around 10:10.[1-3] The crude mortality rate Open a glossary item shows that there are 14 pancreatic cancer deaths for every 100,000 males in the UK, and 13 for every 100,000 females.

The European age-standardised mortality rates Open a glossary item (AS rates) do not differ significantly between the constituent countries of the UK for males or females.[1-3]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Number of Deaths, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Mortality Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2014

England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK
Male Deaths 3,717 244 364 101 4,426
Crude Rate 13.9 16.0 14.0 11.2 13.9
AS Rate 16.9 17.3 16.7 15.4 16.9
AS Rate - 95% LCL 16.3 15.1 15.0 12.4 16.4
AS Rate - 95% UCL 17.4 19.5 18.4 18.4 17.4
Female Deaths 3,713 222 349 107 4,391
Crude Rate 13.5 14.1 12.7 11.4 13.4
AS Rate 13.6 13.1 12.4 12.7 13.5
AS Rate - 95% LCL 13.2 11.4 11.1 10.3 13.1
AS Rate - 95% UCL 14.0 14.8 13.7 15.1 13.9
Persons Deaths 7,430 466 713 208 8,817
Crude Rate 13.7 15.1 13.3 11.3 13.6
AS Rate 15.1 15.0 14.3 14.1 15.0
AS Rate - 95% LCL 14.8 13.6 13.3 12.2 14.7
AS Rate - 95% UCL 15.5 16.3 15.4 16.0 15.3

95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits Open a glossary item around the AS rate Open a glossary item

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, November 2015. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/previousReleases
  2. Data were provided by Information Services Division (ISD) Scotland on request, November 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables
  3. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency on request, November 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp2.htm.
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Pancreatic cancer mortality is strongly related to age, with the highest mortality rates being in older males and females. In the UK in 2012-2014, on average each year half (50%) of deaths were in people aged 75 and over.[1-3]

Age-specific mortality rates in males rise sharply from around age 50-54, peak in the 85-59 age group, and subsequently drop in those aged 90+. Mortality rates in females also rise sharply from around age 50-54, with the highest rates in the 90+ age group. Mortality rates are significantly higher for males than for females aged between 40-44 and 85-89, with no significant differences in other age groups. This gap is widest at the ages of 40-44, when the male:female ratio of age-specific  rates (to account for the different proportions of males to females in each age group) is around 16:10.[1-3]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Average Number of Deaths per Year and Age-Specific Mortality Rates, UK, 2012-2014

For most cancer types, mortality by age largely reflects incidence and survival by age, e.g. typically, higher incidence and lower survival in older people results in higher mortality in older people.

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, January 2014. Similar data can be found here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/all-releases.html?definition=tcm%3A77-27475.  
  2. Data were provided by ISD Scotland on request, March 2014. Similar data can be found here: http://gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/vital-events/general/ref-tables/index.html.  
  3. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry on request, December 2013. Similar data can be found here: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp22.htm.
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Pancreatic cancer mortality rates have remained stable in the UK since the early 1970s.[1-3] However, this overall pattern masks an increase for females and a decrease for males.

For males, European age-standardised Open a glossary item (AS) mortality rates decreased by 19% between 1971-1973 and 1997-1999, and have since increased by 6%, between 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 For females, rates increased steadily by 12% between 1971-1973 and 2012-2014.

Over the last decade in the UK (between 2003-2005 and 2012-2014), pancreatic cancer AS mortality rates have increased by 7% for males and females combined, with a similar increase in males (6%) and females (7%).[1-3]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, UK, 1971-2014

For most cancer types, mortality trends largely reflect incidence and survival trends, e.g. increased incidence without sufficient survival improvement results in increased mortality.

Pancreatic cancer mortality rates have decreased overall for males in most of the broad adult age groups in the UK since the early 1970s, but have remained stable in males aged 80+.[1-3] The largest decrease has been in males aged 25-49, with rates decreasing by 40%between 1971-1973 and 2012-2014.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, by Age, Males, UK, 1971-2014

Pancreatic cancer mortality rates have increased overall in females in many of the broad adult age groups in the UK since the early 1970s, but have decreased in females aged 25-49 and 50-59.[1-3] The largest decrease has been in females aged 25-49, with rates decreasing by 35% between 1971-1973 and 2012-2014.The largest increase has been in females aged 80+, with rates increasing by around 27% between 1971-1973 and 2012-2014.

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, by Age, Females, UK, 1971-2014

References

  1. Data were provided by the Office for National Statistics on request, November 2015. Similar data can be found here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/previousReleases.
  2. Data were provided by the Information Services Division (ISD) Scotland on request, November 2015. Similar data can be found here: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables.
  3. Data were provided by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency on request, November 2015.Similar data can be found here: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp2.htm.
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Pancreatic cancer mortality rates are projected to fall by 3% in the UK between 2014 and 2035, to 17 deaths per 100,000 people by 2035.[1] This includes a smaller decrease for males than for females.

For males, pancreatic cancer European age-standardised (AS) Open a glossary item mortality rates in the UK are projected to fall by less than 1% between 2014 and 2035, to 20 deaths per 100,000 by 2035.[1] For females, rates are projected to fall by 6% between 2014 and 2035, to 15 deaths per 100,000 by 2035.[1]

Pancreatic cancer (C25), Observed and Projected Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, by Sex, UK, 1979-2035

It is projected that 13,004 deaths from pancreatic cancer (6,872 in males, 6,133 in females) will occur in the UK in 2035.

References

  1. Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Projections in the UK Until 2035. Brit J Cancer 2016.

About this data

Data is for: UK, 1979-2014 (observed), 2015-2035 (projected), ICD-10 C25

Projections are based on observed incidence and mortality rates and therefore implicitly include changes in cancer risk factors, diagnosis and treatment. It is not possible to assess the statistical significance of changes between 2014 (observed) and 2035 (projected) figures. Confidence intervals are not calculated for the projected figures. Projections are by their nature uncertain because unexpected events in future could change the trend. It is not sensible to calculate a boundary of uncertainty around these already uncertain point estimates. Changes are described as 'increase' or 'decrease' if there is any difference between the point estimates.

More on projections methodology

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There is evidence for an association between pancreatic cancer mortality and deprivation for both males and females in England.[1] England-wide data for 2007-2011 show European age-standardised Open a glossary item mortality rates are 20% higher for males living in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived, and 25% higher for females.[1]

Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates by Deprivation Quintile, England, 2007-2011

The estimated deprivation gradient in pancreatic cancer mortality between people living in the most and least deprived areas in England has not changed in the period 2002-2011.[1] It has been estimated that there would have been around 430 fewer cancer deaths each year in England during 2007-2011 if all people experienced the same mortality rates as the least deprived.[1]

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Pancreatic cancer is the 5th most common cause of cancer death in Europe overall, with more than 104,000 deaths from pancreatic cancer in 2012 (6% of the total). In Europe (2012), the highest World age-standardised Open a glossary item mortality rates for pancreatic cancer are in Macedonia for men and Slovakia for women; the lowest rates are in Iceland for men and Belarus for women. UK pancreatic cancer mortality rates are estimated to be the 5th lowest in males in Europe, and 17th lowest in females.[1] These data are broadly in line with Europe-specific data available elsewhere.[2]

Pancreatic cancer is the 7th most common cause of cancer death worldwide, with more than 330,000 deaths from pancreatic cancer in 2012 (4% of the total). Pancreatic cancer mortality rates are highest in Northern America and lowest in Middle Africa, but this partly reflects varying data quality worldwide.[1]

References

  1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0, Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 11 [Internet]. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2013. Available from:http://globocan.iarc.fr, accessed December 2013.
  2. Ferlay J, Steliarova-Foucher E, Lortet-Tieulent J, et al.Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries in 2012. European Journal of Cancer (2013) 49, 1374-1403.
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Cancer Statistics Explained

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