Kidney cancer risk

The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with kidney cancer is 1 in 68 (1%) for females, and 1 in 38 (3%) for males born in 1961 in the UK. [1]

These figures take account of the possibility that someone can have more than one diagnosis of kidney cancer in their lifetime ('Adjusted for Multiple Primaries' (AMP) method).[2]

See also

Lifetime risk for all cancers combined and cancers compared

Kidney cancer incidence statistics

How risk is calculated

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

References

1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK 2023.
2. Sasieni PD, Shelton J, Ormiston-Smith N, et al. What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: The effect of adjusting for multiple primaries.  Br J Cancer, 2011.105(3): p.460-5

About this data

Data is for UK, past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961, ICD-10 C00-C14, C30-C32.

Calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK, 2023 (as yet unpublished). Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer for people in the UK born in 1961. Based on method from Ahmad et al. 2015, using projected cancer incidence (using data up to 2018) calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK and projected all-cause mortality (using data up to 2020, with adjustment for COVID impact) calculated by Office for National Statistics. Differences from previous analyses are attributable mainly to slowing pace of improvement in life expectancy, and also to slowing/stabilising increases in cancer incidence.

Last reviewed: 14 December 2023

34% of kidney cancer cases in the UK are preventable.[1]

See also

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

References

1. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.

Last reviewed: 14 June 2018

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) classify the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1,2] 24% of kidney cancer cases in the UK are caused by overweight and obesity.[3]

Adult BMI

Adult BMI
Kidney cancer risk is 24% higher in men per 5-unit body mass index (BMI) increase, an umbrella study of meta-analyses showed.[4] Kidney cancer risk is 33% higher in women per 5-unit body mass index (BMI) increase, an umbrella study of meta-analyses showed.[4]

Overweight and obesity may increase kidney cancer risk by raising insulin, oestrogens and growth factors levels, and changing cholesterol metabolism or the immune system.[5]

Birth weight

Wilms tumour risk is higher in children with a higher birth-weight, a meta-analysis showed.[6]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on obesity and cancer

View our health information on obesity, weight and cancer

See more information on how obesity can cause cancer

References

1. Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, et al. Body Fatness and Cancer--Viewpoint of the IARC Working Group. N Engl J Med. 2016 Aug 25;375(8):794-8.
2. World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research. Continuous Update Project Findings & Reports. Accessed October 2018.
3. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
4. Kyrgiou M, Kalliala I, Markozannes G, et al. Adiposity and cancer at major anatomical sites: umbrella review of the literature. BMJ 2017;:j477.
5. Luo J, Margolis KL, Adami HO, et al. Body size, weight cycling, and risk of renal cell carcinoma among postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative (United States). Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:752-9.
6. Chu A, Heck JE, Ribeiro KB, et al. Wilms' tumour: a systematic review of risk factors and meta-analysis. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 2010;24:449-69.

Last reviewed: 18 April 2019

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 13% of kidney cancer cases in the UK are caused by smoking.[2]

Kidney cancer risk is 33% higher in current smokers compared with non-smokers, a meta-analysis showed.[3]

Kidney cancer risk increases with the number of cigarettes smoked per day and smoking duration, a meta-analysis showed.[4] Kidney cancer risk is 50-76% higher in heavy smokers (those who smoke more than 20 cigarettes per day or have more than 50 pack-years of exposure), compared with never-smokers, a meta-analysis showed.[4]

Kidney cancer risk among ex-smokers who quit more than 10 years ago is comparable to that of never-smokers, a meta-analysis showed.[4]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on tobacco and cancer

View our health information on smoking and cancer

References

1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed January 2018. 
2. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
3. Cumberbatch MG, Rota M, Catto JW, et al. The Role of Tobacco Smoke in Bladder and Kidney Carcinogenesis: A Comparison of Exposures and Meta-analysis of Incidence and Mortality Risks. Eur Urol. 2016 Sep;70(3):458-66.
4. Hunt JD, van der Hel OL, McMillan GP, et al. Renal cell carcinoma in relation to cigarette smoking: meta-analysis of 24 studies. Int J Cancer 2005; 114:101-8.

Last reviewed: 1 October 2018

Kidney and bladder cancer risk is 2.3 times higher in people with end stage renal disease receiving dialysis, a meta-analysis showed.[1]

Kidney stones

Kidney cancer risk among men is 41% higher in those with kidney stones, a meta-analysis showed.[2] Kidney cancer risk among women is not associated with kidney stones, a meta-analysis showed.[2]

Hypertension

Kidney cancer risk is 67% higher in people with a history of hypertension, a meta-analysis showed.[3] For every 10-mmHg increase in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure, there is a 10% and 22% increase in the risk of kidney cancer, respectively, the size of the association may differ between men and women.[3]
Kidney cancer risk is 54-100% higher in diuretics users versus non-users, a meta-analysis showed; this may relate to the underlying hypertension but evidence is unclear.[4]

Diabetes

Kidney cancer risk is 37% higher in people with type 1 diabetes compared with people without type 1 diabetes, a meta-analysis has shown.[5]

Kidney cancer risk among diabetics may be higher in insulin users than non-users, a meta-analysis showed.[6] Kidney cancer risk among diabetics is not associated with metformin or pioglitazone use,[7] meta-analyses have shown.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)

Kidney cancer risk is 38% higher in non-aspirin NSAID ever-users, compared with never/rare users, a meta-analysis showed.[8] Kidney cancer risk is not associated with aspirin use, a meta-analysis showed.[8]

Paracetamol

Kidney cancer risk is 32% higher in paracetamol (acetaminophen) ever-users, compared with never/rare users, a meta-analysis showed.[8]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

References

1. Wong G, Staplin N, Emberson J, et al. Chronic kidney disease and the risk of cancer: an individual patient data meta-analysis of 32,057 participants from six prospective studies. BMC Cancer 2016;16(1).
2. Cheungpasitporn W, Thongprayoon C, O'Corragain OA, et al. The risk of kidney cancer in patients with kidney stones: a systematic review and meta-analysis. QJM 2014. pii: hcu195.
3. Hidayat K, Du X, Zou S, et al. Blood pressure and kidney cancer risk. Journal of Hypertension 2017;35(7):1333-1344.
4. Grossman E, Messerli FH, Goldbourt U. Antihypertensive therapy and the risk of malignancies. Eur Heart J 2001;22:1343-52.
5. Sona M, Myung S, Park K, et al. Type 1 diabetes mellitus and risk of cancer: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2018;48(5):426-433.
6. Karlstad O, Linde JS, Vestergaard P, et al. Use of Insulin and Insulin Analogs and Risk of Cancer- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies. Curr Drug Saf. 2013 Nov 7.
7. Colmers IN, Bowker SL, Johnson JA. Thiazolidinedione use and cancer incidence in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Metab 2012;38(6):475-84.
8. Choueiri TK, Je Y, Cho E. Analgesic use and the risk of kidney cancer: a meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies. Int J Cancer 2014;134(2):384-96.

Last reviewed: 18 April 2019

An estimated 2-4% of kidney cancers are caused by inherited factors.[1]

Renal cell carcinoma risk is 2.2-2.6 times higher in people with a first-degree relative with kidney cancer, a meta-analysis showed.[2] Renal cell carcinoma risk does not differ significantly between people whose sibling is affected and people whose parent is affected, a cohort study showed.[3]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

See more information on how inherited genes can be a cause of cancer

References

1. Bausch B, Jilg C, Gläsker S, et al. Renal cancer in von Hippel-Lindau disease and related syndromes. Nat Rev Nephrol 2013;9(9):529-38.
2. Clague J, Lin J, Cassidy A, et al. Family history and risk of renal cell carcinoma: results from a case-control study and systematic meta-analysis Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18:801-7.
3. Liu H, Sundquist J, Hemminki K. Familial renal cell carcinoma from the Swedish Family-Cancer Database. Eur Urol 2011;60:987-93.

Last reviewed: 1 October 2018