Pancreatic cancer incidence statistics

The pancreas is situated in a deep location, flat against the back of the abdomen behind the stomach and small intestine. It is part of the digestive system and is a large gland that makes digestive juices and insulin (Figure 1.1).

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The prognosis for people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer is poor, partly due to non-specific symptoms which leads to the disease being diagnosed at a late stage, and partly because of the location of the pancreas.

section reviewed 31/12/09
section updated 31/12/09

In 2008 there were 8,085 newly diagnosed cases of pancreatic cancer in the UK. Although there are a similar number of cases in males and females, the age-standardised rates are higher for males. (Table 1.1) 1-4

It has been estimated that the lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 77 for men and 1 in 79 for women in the UK. This was calculated using the "current probability" method. 5,6

Table 1.1: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Number of New Cases, Crude and European Age-Standardised (AS) Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, UK, 2008

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*95% LCL and 95% UCL are the 95% lower and upper confidence limits around the AS Rate

Figure 1.2 shows that the age-specific incidence rates increase with age, rates start to rise significantly in people aged 45 and over.1-4 Around three-quarters (75%) of pancreatic cancer cases occur in people aged 65 years or over.

Figure 1.2: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), Average Number of New Cases per Year and Age-Specific Incidence Rates, UK, 2006-2008

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section reviewed 12/08/11
section updated 12/08/11

It is estimated that around 70,000 people were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the countries of the European Union in 2008. The highest incidence of pancreatic cancer in the countries of the European Union is found in males in Hungary and the Czech Republic. The highest rates among females occur in the Czech Republic and Finland as shown in Figure 1.3. 7

Figure 1.3: Pancreatic cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, EU-27 Countries, 2008 Estimates

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An estimated 279,000 cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed worldwide in 2008. Europe and Northern America have the highest incidence of pancreatic cancer, with particularly high rates in males in Central and Eastern Europe. The lowest incidence rates are found in Asia and Africa as shown in Figure 1.4.8

Figure 1.4: Pancreatic cancer (C25), World Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, World Regions, 2008 Estimates

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section reviewed 12/08/11
section updated 12/08/11

The age-standardised rates for men declined slightly between 1979 and 1996, and since then have remained stable. The rates for women declined between 1989 and 1997, but since then have gradually increased. The decrease for males partly reflects the decline in smoking prevalence, as smoking accounts for up to 30% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK.

Figure 1.5: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, Great Britain, 1975-2008

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The pancreas cancer incidence trend for the UK is shown in Figure 1.6.

Figure 1.6: Pancreatic Cancer (C25), European Age-Standardised Incidence Rates, UK, 1993-2008

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section reviewed 12/08/11
section updated 12/08/11

Lifetime risk is an estimation of the risk that a newborn child has of being diagnosed with cancer at some point during their life.  It is a summary of risk in the population but genetic and lifestyle factors affect the risk of cancer and so the risk for every individual is different.

In 2010, in the UK, the lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is 1 in 73 for men and 1 in 74 for women.11

The lifetime risk for pancreatic has been calculated by the Statistical Information Team using the ‘Current Probability’ method; this is a different method used from most other cancer sites since the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of pancreatic over the course of their lifetime is very low.6

section reviewed 25/04/13
section updated 25/04/13

Around 95% of pancreatic tumours are adenocarcinomas, originating from the exocrine (digestive enzyme-producing) part of the pancreas. Nearly all of these are ductal adenocarcinomas.

There are also three rarer types of exocrine pancreatic cancer, for which the treatment followed is more or less the same as for ductal adenocarcinoma. Endocrine tumours of the pancreas exist too, arising from the islets of Langerhans (which produce several hormones including insulin), but are rare.9

section reviewed 31/12/09
section updated 31/12/09

Prevalence data relate to those people in the UK population who were alive on a specific date having previously been diagnosed with cancer. The latest analysis shows that on 31st December 2006, around 4,300 people were alive up to ten years after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.10 Table 1.2 shows the one, five and ten year prevalence by sex for pancreatic cancer.

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section reviewed 13/06/10
section updated 13/06/10