Smoking is the biggest cause of cancer in the UK and causes at least 16 different types of cancer. Although smoking prevalence has fallen substantially over recent decades, millions of people in the UK still smoke, and cancer risk remains elevated among both people who currently smoke and people who used to smoke.
This study combined projected cancer incidence with data on smoking prevalence, former smoking prevalence, second-hand smoke exposure and cancer risk to estimate the number of cancer cases expected to be caused by tobacco during the current UK parliamentary term (July 2024 to July 2029).
The aim was to quantify the scale of smoking-attributable cancer in the UK and its constituent nations over the coming years and provide context for efforts to reduce smoking prevalence.
Almost 300,000 new cancer cases are projected to be caused by smoking in the UK during the current parliamentary term (July 2024 to July 2029), if current trends continue.
Around 2,800 of these cancer cases are projected to be caused by second-hand smoke exposure among people who have never smoked.
Despite falling smoking prevalence, smoking is projected to remain a major cause of cancer in the UK over the next five years. Because cancer can develop many years after tobacco exposure, reductions in smoking prevalence do not immediately translate into equivalent reductions in smoking-attributable cancer cases.
These findings highlight the continued impact of tobacco on cancer in the UK. Even after decades of progress in reducing smoking prevalence, tobacco remains a major preventable cause of cancer.
These findings reinforce the importance of sustained action to prevent people from starting to smoke and to support people who smoke to quit. Future research should continue to monitor trends in smoking-attributable cancer and evaluate how changes in smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies influence future cancer risk across the UK.
Read the report in fullNadine Zakkak, Magda Mikolajczyk, Sofia Migues, Sam Finnegan, Lucy Clark, Katrina Brown, for the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK.
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