Survival for oesophageal cancer
Survival depends on many factors. No one can tell you exactly how long you will live.
Below are general statistics based on large groups of people. Remember, they can’t tell you what will happen in your individual case.
About these statistics
The terms 1 year survival and 5 year survival don't mean that you will only live for 1 or 5 years.
The NHS, other health organisations, and researchers collect information. They record what happens to people with cancer in the years after their diagnosis. 5 years is a common time point to measure survival. But some people live much longer than this.
5 year survival is the number of people who have not died from their cancer within 5 years after diagnosis.
Survival by stage
There are no UK-wide statistics available for oesophageal cancer survival by stage.
Survival statistics are available for each stage of oesophageal cancer in England. These figures are for people diagnosed between 2016 and 2020.
Please bear in mind that these statistics do not take into account what treatment people had.
Stage 1
Almost 65 out of 100 people (almost 65%) with stage 1 oesophageal cancer will survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they're diagnosed.
Stage 2
Around 30 out of 100 people (around 30%) with stage 2 oesophageal cancer will survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they're diagnosed.
Stage 3
Around 20 out of 100 people (around 20%) with stage 3 oesophageal cancer will survive their cancer for 5 years or more after they're diagnosed.
Stage 4
There are no 5 year survival statistics for stage 4 cancer. NHS England does provide statistics for 4 year survival for people with stage 4 oesophageal cancer.
5 out of 100 people (5%) with stage 4 oesophageal cancer will survive their cancer for 4 years or more after they are diagnosed.
Cancer survival in England, cancers diagnosed 2016 to 2020, followed up to 2021
NHS England
These figures are for people diagnosed in England between 2016 and 2020.
These statistics are for net survival. Net survival estimates the number of people who survive their cancer rather than calculating the number of people diagnosed with cancer who are still alive. In other words, it is the survival of cancer patients after taking into account that some people would have died from other causes if they had not had cancer.
Survival for all stages of oesophageal cancer
The UK survival statistics come from England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland have a similar population and health care system. So we can apply these survival statistics to the whole of the UK.
Generally for adults with oesophageal cancer in the UK:
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around 45 out of every 100 (around 45%) survive their cancer for 1 year or more
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more than 15 out of every 100 (more than 15%) survive their cancer for 5 years or more
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almost 15 out of every 100 (almost 15%) survive their cancer for 10 years or more
Trends over 48 years in a one-number index of survival for all cancers combined, England and Wales (1971–2018): a population-based registry study
M Coleman and others
The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2025. Volume 56, Article number 101385
These figures are for people diagnosed with cancer in England and Wales between 1971 and 2018, followed up to 2019 using individual records from the National Disease Registration Service (NDRS) for England, and the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU).
These statistics are for net survival. Net survival estimates the number of people who survive their cancer rather than calculating the number of people diagnosed with cancer who are still alive. In other words, it is the survival of cancer patients after taking into account that some people would have died from other causes if they had not had cancer.
What affects survival?
Your outlook depends on the stage of the cancer when it was diagnosed. This means how big it is and whether it has spread.
The type of cancer and grade of the cancer cells can also affect your survival. Grade means how abnormal the cells look under the microscope.
Your general fitness and other health conditions also affect survival. Health conditions could affect the treatments you can have. And good general fitness might help you cope better with your cancer and treatment.
More statistics
For more in-depth information about survival and oesophageal cancer, go to our Cancer Statistics section.
