The number of people diagnosed with cancer in the UK is projected to rise substantially over the next decade. Whilst this is mostly due to an ageing population, this increase will drive higher demand for cancer services, including treatment.
Estimating how many additional people will start treatment for their cancer is just one of the factors that needs to be taken into consideration for future service planning. This exploratory analysis aims to provide this baseline, using treatment data and cancer incidence projections to estimate the increase in primary cancer treatments over the next decade. Changes in radiotherapy, systematic anti-cancer therapy (including chemotherapy), surgery and other types of care were examined.
Over the next decade, the projected change in cancer incidence across all cancers is estimated to increase primary treatment demand by nearly 13% for radiotherapy, SACT and surgery, and by 21% for ‘other care’ by 2035. Prostate cancer is expected to show the largest increase in patients treated compared with all other cancer sites.
The largest increase in demand for first-line treatments will be for surgery. It is that projected around 19,100 additional patients will need surgery in 2035 compared to 2025, as a result of changing cancer incidence. In addition, other forms of care are projected to grow at the fastest rate, increasing by 20.7% by 2035, driven largely by the ageing population.
Demographic shifts will also contribute to rising demand. There is projected to be a notable increase in contribution from under 50s receiving breast cancer treatment. Most of the projected increase in prostate cancer treatment is driven by men aged 50-79, with nearly all of the growth in surgery coming from this group. It is important to note that the increasing adoption of focal therapies and the continued shift towards active surveillance may moderate these increases over time.
Our exploratory findings show an estimated increase in the number of cancer treatments required over the next decade in the UK, based on the increasing cancer incidence. Increased demand on surgery will place pressure on theatre capacity and the surgical workforce. Forms of other care such as symptom management and palliative care will require expanded resources and specialist staff.
These estimates are to be used alongside the modelling of other factors, to help inform future planning decisions on workforce training and recruitment, as well as guide investment and changes in cancer services to meet future demand.
There are also other factors that will lead to changes in the demand for cancer treatments, such as the development of new treatments; better detection and diagnosis of cancer at an early stage of disease; and reductions in unwarranted variation. Understanding site- or demographic-level changes over time plays a role in helping to inform capacity-building, alongside modelling of other factors that affects changes in treatment.
Shane Johnson, Katie Sutton, Scarlett Cartwright-Hughes, Sophia Lowes, Lyndsy Ambler, Lucy Ironmonger, Jon Shelton.
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