Conditional cancer survival is the probability that a patient will survive for a further period of time, given that they have already survived a specified length of time since their initial cancer diagnosis. In this analysis we look at:
1 -year conditional survival – the probability of surviving to one year having already survived one, three or six months since diagnosis.
5-year conditional survival – the probability of surviving to five years having already survived one month, six months or one year since diagnosis.
We estimate the 1- and 5-year conditional survival of 14 cancer sites for patients in England diagnosed between 2015 and 2019. This analysis provides new estimates of conditional survival, and more demographic breakdowns (stage at diagnosis, gender, age and deprivation quintile) than previously reported.
This analysis was done in partnership with NHS England.
Overall, the longer a person has already survived after a diagnosis with cancer, the greater the likelihood that person will survive to a 1- or 5-year milestone.
1-year and 5-year conditional survival estimates for bladder, bowel, brain, kidney, lung, oesophageal, ovarian and stomach cancers saw the greatest increases over time following diagnosis.
For example, 47.6% people are estimated to survive their bladder cancer from diagnosis to five years. But looking at those who had already survived one year, 5-year conditional survival was 68.2%
Breast, prostate, melanoma and testicular cancers, which already have high survival at time of diagnosis, saw little change in conditional survival estimates over time after diagnosis. For example, 96.7% of females would be expected to survive their breast cancer from diagnosis to five years. 1-year conditional breast cancer survival in females having survived 6 months already, was 98.8%
Overall, conditional survival estimates were found to be similar for males and females, except for certain sites including lung and bladder cancer. Lung cancer conditional survival estimates were slightly higher in females and bladder cancer conditional survival estimates were higher in men.
Patients with later stage disease (stage 4) generally showed the largest increases in 1- and 5-year conditional survival estimates over time compared to those diagnosed at stages 1-3.
Conditional survival estimates were largely similar between the most deprived and least deprived, although brain cancer survival was higher among the most deprived.
This analysis has provided 1- and 5-year survival estimates for England conditional on having already survived for up to 1-year, by patient characteristic, for the first time.
The largest improvements in conditional survival estimates were observed in patient groups with lower initial survival estimates, reflecting the very immediate fatalities that many of these patients experience.
These survival estimates provide a useful updated prognosis for patients who survive beyond the initial months from their diagnosis and identify cancer sites and patient characteristics where conditional survival improvements are particularly large.
Read the report in fullLorna Wills, Ben Sharpless, Fahmina Fardus-Reid, Scarlett Cartwright-Hughes, Kirstin Roberts, Jon Shelton, Chloe Bright, Tom Higgins, Lizz Paley.
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