Mortality rates are projected to fall for most types of cancer in the UK between 2014 and 2035.[1] Among cancer types with falling rates, the size of the overall decrease between 2014 and 2035 ranges from less than 1% (laryngeal cancer) to 46% (mesothelioma).
For a smaller number of cancer types, mortality rates are projected to rise in the UK between 2014 and 2035. Among cancer types with rising rates, the size of the overall increase between 2014 and 2035 ranges from 7% (thyroid cancer) to 58% (liver cancer).
These projections reflect past trends in cancer mortality. They do not model the possible impact of current or future changes which may increase or decrease cancer incidence or mortality. For HPV-related cancers (cervical, pharyngeal, anal, vulval, penile, vaginal, and oral cavity), HPV vaccination is expected to substantially decrease future incidence and therefore probably also mortality.[2,3]
Selected Cancers, Number of Deaths and European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, Males, UK, 1979, 2014 and 2035
| |
Age-standardised Rate (per 100,000) |
Deaths |
| Cancer site |
1979 (Observed) |
2014 (Observed) |
2035 (Projected) |
% Change 2014-2035 |
1979 (Observed) |
2014 (Observed) |
2035 (Projected) |
% Change 2014-2035 |
| Anus |
0.50 |
0.66 |
0.91 |
37.90 |
69.00 |
143 |
302.52 |
111.55 |
| Bladder |
26.48 |
17.98 |
13.79 |
-23.31 |
3277.00 |
3614 |
5189.82 |
43.60 |
| Bone |
1.23 |
0.80 |
0.48 |
-40.29 |
205.00 |
187 |
154.71 |
-17.27 |
| Bowel |
65.14 |
40.41 |
28.86 |
-28.58 |
8596.00 |
8566 |
10270.28 |
19.90 |
| Brain |
9.46 |
12.22 |
11.97 |
-2.10 |
1763.00 |
2821 |
3887.01 |
37.79 |
| Hodgkin Lymphoma |
2.08 |
0.91 |
0.75 |
-18.09 |
388.00 |
211 |
250.45 |
18.70 |
| Kidney |
8.12 |
12.75 |
11.40 |
-10.59 |
1258.00 |
2771 |
3957.66 |
42.82 |
| Larynx |
5.23 |
3.10 |
2.80 |
-9.77 |
724.00 |
677 |
954.03 |
40.92 |
| Leukaemia |
12.86 |
12.41 |
9.64 |
-22.35 |
1810.00 |
2630 |
3551.68 |
35.04 |
| Liver |
4.04 |
13.85 |
21.75 |
57.01 |
634.00 |
3052 |
7449.34 |
144.08 |
| Lung |
201.35 |
89.69 |
64.97 |
-27.56 |
30391.00 |
19563 |
22226.74 |
13.62 |
| Malignant Melanoma |
2.25 |
6.44 |
5.57 |
-13.38 |
396.00 |
1431 |
1974.49 |
37.98 |
| Mesothelioma |
2.04 |
9.93 |
5.10 |
-48.66 |
348.82 |
2154 |
1875.83 |
-12.90 |
| Myeloma |
6.10 |
7.50 |
6.33 |
-15.64 |
886.00 |
1596 |
2264.73 |
41.90 |
| Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma |
7.57 |
12.10 |
9.49 |
-21.58 |
1186.00 |
2603 |
3434.57 |
31.95 |
| Oesophagus |
16.53 |
23.53 |
19.35 |
-17.79 |
2379.00 |
5213 |
6570.96 |
26.05 |
| Oral |
6.88 |
6.97 |
9.51 |
36.54 |
922.00 |
1613 |
3074.45 |
90.60 |
| Pancreas |
24.68 |
20.07 |
20.00 |
-0.36 |
3457.00 |
4426 |
6871.66 |
55.26 |
| Prostate |
49.07 |
57.22 |
47.86 |
-16.36 |
5401.00 |
11287 |
18336.23 |
62.45 |
| Stomach |
52.58 |
13.69 |
9.31 |
-32.00 |
7353.00 |
2919 |
3294.87 |
12.88 |
| Testis |
0.99 |
0.24 |
0.15 |
-34.87 |
210.00 |
60 |
51.13 |
-14.79 |
| Thyroid |
0.89 |
0.71 |
0.68 |
-4.63 |
128.00 |
154 |
234.55 |
52.30 |
| Other |
37.73 |
40.75 |
29.22 |
-28.30 |
5477.00 |
8641 |
10407.62 |
20.44 |
| All cancers |
543.81 |
403.92 |
329.86 |
-18.33 |
77258.82 |
86332 |
116585.30 |
35.04 |
Selected Cancers, Number of Deathsand European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, Females, UK, 1979, 2014 and 2035
| |
Age-standardised Rate (per 100,000) |
Deaths |
| Cancer site |
1979 (Observed) |
2014 (Observed) |
2035 (Projected) |
% Change 2014-2035 |
1979 (Observed) |
2014 (Observed) |
2035 (Projected) |
% Change 2014-2035 |
| Anus |
0.43 |
0.78 |
1.26 |
61.84 |
88.00 |
215 |
474.84 |
120.86 |
| Bladder |
7.16 |
6.12 |
5.78 |
-5.56 |
1470.00 |
1755 |
2581.42 |
47.09 |
| Bone |
0.56 |
0.55 |
0.54 |
-2.67 |
130.00 |
152 |
197.29 |
29.80 |
| Bowel |
48.63 |
25.97 |
21.08 |
-18.83 |
9933.00 |
7337 |
8976.63 |
22.35 |
| Brain |
6.64 |
8.47 |
8.26 |
-2.40 |
1455.00 |
2295 |
3072.60 |
33.88 |
| Breast |
64.69 |
41.15 |
30.51 |
-25.86 |
13498.00 |
11360 |
11875.54 |
4.54 |
| Cervix |
11.02 |
3.31 |
3.08 |
-6.90 |
2335.00 |
890 |
1029.95 |
15.72 |
| Hodgkin Lymphoma |
1.22 |
0.52 |
0.31 |
-39.82 |
269.00 |
143 |
117.70 |
-17.69 |
| Kidney |
3.73 |
5.88 |
4.29 |
-27.07 |
796.00 |
1637 |
1781.37 |
8.82 |
| Larynx |
0.99 |
0.61 |
0.74 |
21.97 |
209.00 |
162 |
274.68 |
69.56 |
| Leukaemia |
7.72 |
6.82 |
5.78 |
-15.31 |
1623.00 |
1907 |
2539.11 |
33.15 |
| Liver |
1.90 |
7.38 |
11.33 |
53.40 |
403.00 |
2035 |
4730.14 |
132.44 |
| Lung |
41.93 |
60.52 |
51.81 |
-14.38 |
9073.00 |
16331 |
19604.32 |
20.04 |
| Malignant Melanoma |
2.40 |
3.71 |
3.05 |
-17.98 |
505.00 |
1027 |
1235.89 |
20.34 |
| Mesothelioma |
0.44 |
1.59 |
1.01 |
-36.47 |
95.16 |
424 |
422.05 |
-0.43 |
| Myeloma |
4.27 |
4.79 |
3.72 |
-22.24 |
909.00 |
1332 |
1570.42 |
17.90 |
| Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma |
5.31 |
7.86 |
6.25 |
-20.49 |
1138.00 |
2183 |
2694.18 |
23.42 |
| Oesophagus |
8.72 |
9.25 |
7.64 |
-17.44 |
1807.00 |
2577 |
3176.99 |
23.28 |
| Oral |
3.05 |
2.82 |
4.00 |
41.82 |
634.00 |
773 |
1517.44 |
96.31 |
| Ovary |
19.06 |
15.36 |
9.62 |
-37.42 |
4079.00 |
4127 |
3743.83 |
-9.28 |
| Pancreas |
15.33 |
16.02 |
15.12 |
-5.63 |
3206.00 |
4391 |
6132.70 |
39.67 |
| Stomach |
26.17 |
5.92 |
4.53 |
-23.62 |
5372.00 |
1657 |
1897.55 |
14.52 |
| Thyroid |
1.46 |
0.79 |
0.93 |
17.21 |
311.00 |
222 |
377.76 |
70.16 |
| Uterus |
8.00 |
7.98 |
9.47 |
18.66 |
1694.00 |
2166 |
3829.07 |
76.78 |
| Other |
31.06 |
35.61 |
28.93 |
-18.76 |
6462.00 |
9992 |
12107.30 |
21.17 |
| All cancers |
321.88 |
279.78 |
239.02 |
-14.57 |
67494.16 |
77090 |
95960.78 |
24.48 |
Liver cancer has the fastest-increasing projected mortality rate in males, rising by 2% per year on average between 2015 and 2035. For females, anus cancer has the fastest-increasing projected mortality rate, rising by 2% per year on average between 2015 and 2035.
The Five Cancers with the Highest Average Annual Percentage Change in European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, Males, UK, 2015-2035

The Five Cancers with the Highest Average Annual Percentage Change in European Age-Standardised Mortality Rates, Females, UK, 2015-2035

For almost all cancer types, the number of deaths is projected to increase between 2014 and 2035. This is due to the growing and ageing population, as well as increases in incidence rates.