Pancreatic cancer risk

The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer is 1 in 59 (2%) for females, and 1 in 55 (2%) for males born in 1961 in the UK. [1]

These figures have been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of pancreatic cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low ('Current Probability' method).[2]

See also

Lifetime risk for all cancers combined and cancers compared

Pancreatic cancer incidence statistics

How risk is calculated

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

References

1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK 2023.
2. Estève J, Benhamou E, Raymond L. Statistical methods in cancer research. Volume IV. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Sci Publ. 1994;(128):1-302.

About this data

Data is for UK, past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961, ICD-10 C15.

Calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK, 2023 (as yet unpublished). Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer for people in the UK born in 1961. Based on method from Esteve et al. 1994 [2], using projected cancer incidence (using data up to 2018) calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK and projected all-cause mortality (using data up to 2020, with adjustment for COVID impact) calculated by Office for National Statistics. Differences from previous analyses are attributable mainly toslowing pace of improvement in life expectancy, and also to slowing/stabilising increases in cancer incidence.

Last reviewed: 14 December 2023

31% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK are preventable.[1]

See also

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

References

1. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
2. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed October 2018.
3. Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, et al. Body Fatness and Cancer--Viewpoint of the IARC Working Group. N Engl J Med. 2016 Aug 25;375(8):794-8
4. World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research. Continuous Update Project Findings & Reports. Accessed October 2018.

Last reviewed: 14 June 2018

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 22% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK are caused by smoking.[2]

Smoking

Pancreatic cancer risk is 2.2 times higher in current smokers compared with never-smokers, a pooled analysis showed.[3] Risk increases with the number of cigarettes smoked per day, and duration of cigarette smoking, meta- and pooled analyses have shown.[3,4]

Pancreatic cancer risk is increased to a similar extent in people who smoke cigars only and people who smoke cigarettes only, a pooled analysis showed.[5] Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with pipe-only smoking.[5]

Stopping smoking

Pancreatic cancer risk in those who quit smoking 20 years ago is similar to that of never-smokers, a pooled analysis showed.[3]

Smokeless tobacco

Pancreatic cancer risk is around 80% higher among ever-users of snus, compared with snus never-users, a meta-analysis showed.[6] However, a pooled analysis showed the evidence is mixed.[7]

Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with ever-use of smokeless tobacco overall, compared with never-use of any tobacco, a pooled analysis and systematic review have shown.[5,8]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on tobacco and cancer

View our health information on smoking and cancer

References

1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122. Accessed October 2018.
2. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.
3. Bosetti C, Lucenteforte E, Silverman DT, et al. Cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer: an analysis from the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (Panc4). Ann Oncol 2012;23(7):1880-8.

4. Zou L, Zhong R, Shen N, et al. Non- linear dose-response relationship between cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer risk: evidence from a meta-analysis of 42 observational studies. Eur J Cancer 2014;50(1):193-203.

5. Bertuccio P, La Vecchia C, Silverman DT, et al. Cigar and pipe smoking, smokeless tobacco use and pancreatic cancer: an analysis from the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4). Ann Oncol. 2011;22(6):1420-6.

6. Boffetta P, Hecht S, Gray N, et al. Smokeless tobacco and cancer. Lancet Oncol 2008;9 (7):667-75.

7. Araghi M, Galanti MR, Lundberg M, et al. Use of moist oral snuff (snus) and pancreatic cancer: Pooled analysis of nine prospective observational studies. Int J Cancer. 2017 May 9. doi: 10.1002/ijc.30773.

8. Burkey MD, Feirman S, Wang H, et al. The association between smokeless tobacco use and pancreatic adenocarcinoma: a systematic review. Cancer Epidemiol. 2014 Dec;38(6):647-53.

Last reviewed: 1 October 2018

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) classify the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1,2] 12% of pancreatic cancer cases in the UK are caused by overweight and obesity.[3]

Pancreatic cancer risk is 10% higher per 5-unit body mass index (BMI) increase, an umbrella study of meta-analyses showed.[4]

Pancreatic cancer risk increases by 11% per 10cm waist circumference increase, and by 20% per 0.1-unit waist-to-hip ratio increment, this meta-analysis showed.[4]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on obesity and cancer

View our health information on obesity, weight and cancer

References

1. Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, et al. Body Fatness and Cancer--Viewpoint of the IARC Working Group. N Engl J Med. 2016 Aug 25;375(8):794-8.

2. World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research. Continuous Update Project Findings & Reports. Accessed October 2018.

3. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018.

4. Kyrgiou M, Kalliala I, Markozannes G, et al. Adiposity and cancer at major anatomical sites: umbrella review of the literature. BMJ 2017;:j477.

Last reviewed: 2 May 2019

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1]

Pancreatic cancer risk is 15-19% higher in people who consume  24g or more (3+ units) of alcohol per day, compared with non- or occasional drinkers (those with the lowest alcohol intake), meta-analyses have shown.[2,3] Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with drinking less than 24g (3 units) of alcohol per day.[2,3]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

View our statistics on alcohol and cancer

View our health information on alcohol and cancer

References

1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122* Accessed October 2018.
2. Bagnardi V, Rota M, Botteri E, et al. Alcohol consumption and site-specific cancer risk: a comprehensive dose-response meta-analysis. Br J Cancer. 2015 Feb 3;112(3):580-93
3. Wang Y, Gou Y, Jin W, et al. Association between alcohol intake and the risk of pancreatic cancer: a dose–response meta-analysis of cohort studies. BMC Cancer 2016;16(1).

Last reviewed: 2 May 2019

Family history

Pancreatic cancer risk is 62-76% higher in people with a first-degree relative with the disease, meta- and pooled analyses have shown.[1,2] Risk is higher in those with more first-degree relatives affected, or first-degree relatives diagnosed at a younger age.[3] Pancreatic cancer risk is 45% higher in people with a first-degree relative with prostate cancer, a pooled analysis showed.[1]

Genetic factors

Pancreatic cancer risk is higher in people with the following rare genetic conditions, compared with the general population:[3,4]

• Peutz-Jeghers syndrome - more than 100 times higher risk
• Familial atypical multiple mole melanoma syndrome (FAMMM) - 13-38 times higher risk
• Lynch syndrome/hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) - up to around 9 times higher risk (some evidence of no association)
• BRCA2 mutation - 3.5 times higher risk
• BRCA1 mutation - up to 2.3 times higher risk (some evidence of no association).

These genetic syndromes explain a small proportion of familial pancreatic cancer.[3,4]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

See more information on how inherited genes can be a cause of cancer

References

1. Jacobs EJ, Chanock SJ, Fuchs CS, et al. Family history of cancer and risk of pancreatic cancer: A pooled analysis from the pancreatic cancer cohort consortium (PANSCAN). Int J Cancer 2010;127(6):1421-8.
2. Permuth-Wey J, Egan KM. Family history is a significant risk factor for pancreatic cancer: results from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Fam Cancer 2008; 8(2):109-17.
3. Canto MI, Harinck F, Hruban RH, et al. International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening (CAPS) Consortium summit on the management of patients with increased risk for familial pancreatic cancer. Gut 2013;62(3):339-47.
4. Klein AP. Identifying people at a high risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Nat Rev Cancer 2013;13(1):66-74.

Last reviewed: 1 May 2019

Pancreatitis

Pancreatic cancer risk is at least threefold higher in people with chronic pancreatitis versus those without, a meta-analysis showed.[1] Pancreatic cancer risk is highest shortly after pancreatitis diagnosis, probably because of increased investigative activity in this period and/or initial misdiagnosis of pancreatic cancer as pancreatitis. Residual confounding by smoking and alcohol use may explain some of the association. [1]

Pancreatic cancer risk is increased more than 50-fold in people with hereditary pancreatitis.[2]

Gallstones

Pancreatic cancer risk is 25% higher in people with gallstones (cholelithiasis) versus people without, a meta-analysis showed; gallstone disease and pancreatitis are often associated.[3] Pancreatic cancer risk may only be increased shortly after gallstones diagnosis, probably because of increased investigative activity in this period and/or gallstones being an early symptom of pancreatic cancer.[3]

Diabetes

Pancreatic cancer risk is 34% higher in people with type 1 diabetes compared with people without type 1 diabetes , a meta-analysis has shown.[4] Diabetes may be a cause or an early manifestation of pancreatic cancer, and may vary by treatment type (which itself reflects diabetes severity).[5]

Pancreatic cancer risk may be lower in metformin users versus non-users,[6,7] however there may be no association,[8,9] meta-analyses have shown. Pancreatic cancer risk may be lower in insulin users versus non-users,[10] however there may be no association,[9] meta-analyses have shown; risk may only be increased with shorter-term insulin use.[11] 

Pancreatic cancer risk is higher in sulfonylureas users versus non-users,[9] and is not associated with thiazolidinediones use,[9,12] meta-analyses have shown. Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with incretin-based therapy use, a meta-analysis showed;[13] however, risk may decrease with duration of incretin-based therapy of more than 2 years.[13]

Metabolic syndrome

Pancreatic cancer risk is 58% higher in women with metabolic syndrome (characterised by overweight/obesity, ineffective insulin use, diabetes and hypertension), compared with the general population, a meta-analysis showed.[14] Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with metabolic syndrome in men.[14]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

References

1. Kirkegård J, Mortensen F, Cronin-Fenton D. Chronic Pancreatitis and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. American Journal of Gastroenterology 2017;112(9):1366-1372.

2. Haddad A, Kowdley GC, Pawlik TM, et al. Hereditary pancreatic and hepatobiliary cancers. Int J Surg Oncol. 2011;2011:154673

3. Gong Y, Li S, Tang Y, et al. Cholelithiasis and risk of pancreatic cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis of 21 observational studies. Cancer Causes Control. 2014;25(11):1543-51.

4. Sona M, Myung S, Park K, et al. Type 1 diabetes mellitus and risk of cancer: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2018;48(5):426-433.

5. Ben Q, Xu M, Ning X, et al. Diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer: A meta-analysis of cohort studies. Eur J Cancer. 2011 Sep;47(13):1928-37.

6. Wang Z, Lai ST, Xie L, et al. Metformin is associated with reduced risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2014.

7. Shen M, Boffetta P, Olsen JH, et al. A pooled analysis of second primary pancreatic cancer. Am J Epidemiol 2006; 163(6):502-11.

8. Gandini S, Puntoni M, Heckman-Stoddard BM, et al. Metformin and cancer risk and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis taking into account biases and confounders. Cancer Prev Res (Phila). 2014;7(9):867-85.

9. Singh S, Singh PP, Singh AG, et al. Anti-diabetic medications and risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Gastroenterol 2013;108(4):510-9.

10. Karlstad O, Starup-Linde J, Vestergaard P, et al. Use of insulin and insulin analogs and risk of cancer - systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. Curr Drug Saf.2013;8(5):333-48.

11. Bosetti C, Rosato V, Li D, et al. Diabetes, antidiabetic medications, and pancreatic cancer risk: an analysis from the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium. Ann Oncol 2014;25(10):2065-72.

12. Bosetti C, Rosato V, Buniato D, et al. Cancer risk for patients using thiazolidinediones for type 2 diabetes: a meta-analysis. Oncologist 2013;18(2):148-56.

13. Chen H, Zhou X, Chen T, et al. Incretin-Based Therapy and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials. Diabetes Ther. 2016 Dec;7(4):725-742.

14. Esposito K, Chiodini P, Colao A, et al. Metabolic syndrome and risk of cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Care 2012;35(11):2402-11.

Last reviewed: 1 May 2019

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1]

Pancreatic cancer risk is 21% higher in men with the highest red meat intake compared to men with the lowest red meat intake, a meta-analysis showed.[2] Pancreatic cancer risk is not associated with red meat intake in women.[2] This sex difference may reflect overall lower red meat consumption in women.[2]

See also

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

National Diet and Nutrition Survey

View our health information on diet and cancer

References

1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122. Accessed October 2018.
2. Zhao Z, Yin Z, Pu Z, Zhao Q, et al. Association Between Consumption of Red and Processed Meat and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2017;15(4):486-493.e10.

Last reviewed: 3 May 2019