A cancer incidence projections project was undertaken by a team at the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, as part of a Cancer Research UK programme grant. This resulted in a paper by Mistry et al (2011).
Alternative projections using similar data provided different results and so the team has investigated the reasons for these differences. It has become clear that the main source of discrepancy is the difference between the numbers of cancer registrations for 2004-2007 as available in 2010 and the updated numbers released in 2011. This is caused by delays in registration of some cancers and projections for a number of types, leukaemia in particular, are likely to have substantially under-estimated the future burden of the disease.
As a result of these findings the projections will be recreated and these will be published here when they are available.
- Mistry M, Parkin DM, Ahmad AS, Sasieni P. (2011) Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030. Br J Cancer 105: 1795-1803, doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.430.
- Oliver SE, Roman E, Crouch S, Bolton E, Ferguson B. Br J Cancer. 2013 Mar 19; 108(5):1213-4. Epub 2013 Feb 21. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23429209
- Ahmad AS, Parkin DM, Sasieni PD. Br J Cancer. 2013 Mar 19; 108(5):1215-7. Epub 2013 Feb 21. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23429208